In 2009, Former Nintendo CEO Satoru Iwata Predicted It Would Take "20 Years or So" for Game Purchases to Become Mostly Digital

More than 15 years after Satoru Iwata shared his outlook on the future of video game distribution, his prediction about the industry’s gradual shift toward digital purchases is drawing renewed attention.

Recent digital-only announcements from major gaming companies (starting with Sony) have prompted fans to revisit comments the late Nintendo president made during an investor briefing in 2009, where he argued that physical game sales would not disappear as quickly as many expected.

At the time, digital storefronts were still in their early stages, and Iwata believed consumer habits would take years to change rather than shift overnight. His remarks, originally reported by Kotaku, have resurfaced as the gaming industry continues moving toward digital distribution.

Iwata believed physical games would remain relevant for years

Speaking during a Nintendo investor briefing, Iwata pushed back against predictions that traditional retailers would soon become obsolete.

“Most radical people even dare to say that retailers will be replaced by digital distribution in no time. But personally, I think it will still require a significant amount of time.”

He went on to predict that the majority of video game purchases would become digital only after roughly two decades.

“In short, in 20 years or so I might say it will have probably changed. But in 5 years or so, I do not totally agree with opinions that no one will purchase titles at retailers by then.”

Iwata explained that consumer habits evolve gradually, especially among mainstream audiences, making a rapid transition unlikely.

Satoru Iwata played a key role in the success of the Nintendo DS and Wii during his tenure as Nintendo’s president and CEO. (Image via Nintendo)

While physical games remain available today, recent developments suggest the market has steadily shifted in the direction Iwata anticipated. Digital game sales now account for a significant share of software purchases across major platforms, and publishers increasingly emphasize downloadable releases.

At the same time, physical formats continue to evolve. Nintendo has introduced Game-Key Cards for some Nintendo Switch 2 releases, while other platform holders have expanded digital-first offerings.

Although physical media has not disappeared, the industry’s trajectory closely mirrors Iwata’s long-term outlook that the transition would take decades rather than just a few years.